Hi Steve,

I really like the model. Nonetheless, I would add some relevant aspects, in order to make it more realistic. Such as how funds behave in reality (especially on follow-on rates/allocations).

In my eyes, the goal is not to migitate the downside (by increasing the portfolio size, which you can’t manage either way — spray and pray) but to maximize the upside (increasing the unicorn spotting rate, back the proven winner, maximize/recycle investible capital etc.) you might want to read my post about it:

https://blog.usejournal.com/maximizing-fund-distributions-4d4d31fea133